Pak–India Relations: Between Confrontation and Cooperation

The relationship between Pakistan and India has once again reached a dangerous tipping point. In recent weeks, both nations have witnessed the most significant escalation since the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot episode.

On April 22, 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, left 26 civilians dead. India blamed Pakistan-based militant groups, a charge Islamabad denied. This led to “Operation Sindoor” on May 7, a series of Indian missile and airstrikes targeting alleged terrorist camps in Punjab and Azad Jammu and Kashmir. In a robust and resolute move, the Pakistan Army has responded with “Operation Bunyan UlMarsoos,”to India, conveying an unmistakable warning that any future aggression will be met with steadfast resistance.

Tensions escalated dangerously close to full-scale war until a U.S.-brokered ceasefire was reached on May 10, with involvement from the UK, China, and other global stakeholders. Although the truce averted immediate disaster, it underscored the fragility of peace and the urgent need for sustainable conflict resolution.

Despite decades of hostility, the two nations have, at times, shown a willingness to engage in dialogue. Historic efforts such as the Liaquat–Nehru Pact, the Tashkent Agreement, the Simla Agreement, and confidence-building measures like Cricket Diplomacy, the Lahore Declaration, and the 2004 Musharraf–Vajpayee Joint Statement demonstrate that cooperation is not only possible but often rational.

General Zia-ul-Haq’s role during the 1987 Brasstacks crisis is often overlooked. His restrained diplomacy, amid Indian General K. Sundarji’s aggressive military posturing and Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s initial hardline stance, arguably prevented a full-scale conflict. It serves as a testament to how strategic restraint and backchannel diplomacy can avert catastrophe.

Over the time, leadership in both countries has come to accept certain strategic realities:

*             Regional Isolation is Unsustainable: In a globally interconnected world, neither country can afford to ignore the other.

*             Endless Conflict is Economically Devastating: Military confrontations impose severe economic costs, especially for developing nations.

*             The Nuclear Factor: With both countries being nuclear-armed, any miscalculation carries irreversible consequences.

*             Strategic and Economic Gain from Peace: Both nations stand to benefit more from cooperation than continued hostility.

Still, the threat of miscalculation remains dangerously high. During wartime, the only direct communication channel is the hotline between the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs). In a nuclear environment, a single error could lead to catastrophe.

Moreover, the leadership of both the countries have learnt that 1) they cannot live in regional isolation; 2) they cannot afford constant warfare; 3) the nuclear factor; and, 4) strategic and economic consolidation

Conversely, if Pakistan and India go for war conventional vulnerably threshold will be increased. If they go for war there only one contact available between the two countries and that is hot line between DGMOs. So, there is no room of any mistake because both are nuclear states.

The other steps for enhancing diplomatic relations, economic and trade cooperation, and creating sustainable peace between Pakistan and India like Track-II diplomacy have also not yielded any substantial result.

Government to government cooperation efforts, Track-II diplomacy and steps like Aman ki Aasha are not producing required results. So, if governments of both the countries seriously want to cooperate and enhance bilateral relations, there is a need to setup another short body of 10 members having one senior government representative from each side and eight other members (may be two senior most international relations academicians, two senior retired generals, two senior retired diplomats and two senior media persons (one from each side) with full decision-making powers which may after formulating some mutually agreed terms, took decisions for a peaceful relationship, for a prosperous Pakistan, for an economic and regional political power, India and for a flourishing region.

The events of May 2025 are a stark reminder that South Asia remains dangerously close to war unless proactive steps toward peace are institutionalized. History shows that cooperation between Pakistan and India is not unprecedented; it has simply lacked consistency, structure, and political will.

The choice is clear: continue a cycle of confrontation or invest in a future built on dialogue, economic partnership, and regional stability. Peace is not a weakness; it is a strategic imperative.

Hafiz Muhammad Irfan

–The writer is working as Spokesperson RDA / former Spokesperson NAB Islamabad. He can be reached at irfanchaudhri@gmail.com