Re-evolving Middle East

Now let’s have a bird’s eye view of the Modern Middle East. The modern Middle East was shaped by three things: departure of European powers, the founding of Israel, and the growing importance of the oil industry. These developments eventually led to increased U.S. involvement in the region. The U.S. was the ultimate guarantor of the region’s stability as well as the dominant force in the oil industry after the 1950s. When revolutions brought radical anti-Western regimes to power in Egypt (1954), Syria (1963), Iraq (1968), and Libya (1969), the Soviet Union, seeking to open a new arena of the Cold War, allied itself with Arab socialist rulers. In the mid-to-late 1960s, the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party led by Michel Aflaq and Salah al-Din al-Bitar took power in both Iraq and Syria. Iraq was first ruled by Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr, but was succeeded by Saddam Hussein in 1979. Syria was ruled first by a Military Committee led by Salah Jadid, and later Hafez al-Assad until 2000, when he was succeeded by his son, Bashar al-Assad.

In 1988, Osama bin Laden—projected as pan-Islamist, and jihadist of the wealthy bin Laden family, which had connections to the Saudi royal family—founded al-Qaeda, a controversial militant terrorist organization as projected by the West. In 1996 and 1998, purportedly he declared war on the U.S. in response to their foreign policy in the Middle East, such as their permanent military presence in countries like Saudi Arabia. On 11 September 2001 (9/11), allegedly Al-Qaeda launched a series of major terrorist attacks on various targets in the U.S. U.S. president George W. Bush launched a “war on terror” against terrorist organizations worldwide. In October, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan on the pretext of finding Osama bin Laden and dissolving the Taliban government, but soon proclaimed that Iraq, Iran, and North Korea constituted an “axis of evil”, which supported anti-American terrorism. His administration worked to falsely tie Iraq to 9/11, and claim Iraq too was harboring Al-Qaeda. Interestingly, this was while the U.S. maintained relations with Saudi Arabia, who had been more credibly accused of working with the perpetrators.

In 2002, U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld developed a plan to invade Iraq, remove Saddam Hussein from power, and turn Iraq into a democratic state with a free-market economy. The Bush administration falsely claimed that Iraq was developing and hiding WMDs; British Prime Minister Tony Blair sided with the U.S. In March 2003, a U.S.-led international coalition invaded Iraq, toppling Hussein’s government in April. Saddam Hussein was captured in December 2003, put on trial for crimes against humanity in 2005, and was found guilty before being executed in December 2006 on Eid-UL-Azha day for adding insult to the Muslims’ wounds.

In 2003, the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi movement began an insurgency against Saleh’s government as well as Saudi Arabia. In 2009, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula formed in Yemen, causing Saudi Arabia to secure their border with Yemen, ultimately giving birth to ‘The Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC) in 2015’, with 42 member states, its Headquarters in Riyadh and led by a retired Army Chief from Pakistan. The Yemeni civil war, ongoing since 2014, has been fought between the Republic of Yemen government; the Houthis and their Supreme Political Council government; and each faction’s allies. In Yemen, protests forced the resignation of Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was succeeded by Mansur Hadi. Hadi’s government was similarly unstable that led to the Yemeni civil war. In September 2014, the Houthis took over the Yemeni capital of Sanaa, and Mansur Hadi was put under house arrest. He escaped to Saudi Arabia in 2015. Saudi Arabia and the UAE fought alongside the Republic of Yemen, but the Houthis maintained their holdings. The Houthis captured the city of Aden in 2018, influencing the UAE to withdraw from Yemen.

Yemen, which means South Arabia in Arabic, was for centuries the center of civilization and wealth on the Arabian peninsula. Yemen has proven reserves equivalent to 137.0 times its annual consumption. This means that, without Net Exports, there would be about 137 years of oil left. In 1934, the Saudi–Yemeni War broke out with a Yemeni invasion, responded by a strong Saudi offensive. The war ended with Yemen relinquishing control of three modern Saudi provinces, Asir, Jizan and Najran. Since then, the two countries have always had a complicated relationship. From 2022 onwards, an eight-person Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) has led Yemen’s internationally recognized government. The civil war in Yemen is widely regarded as part of the Iran-Saudi proxy conflict. Houthi insurgents currently control the capital Sanaa and all of former North Yemen and the PLC, which controls much of the south and east of the country, operating from the city of Aden. According to IRC, Yemen for years the poorest country in MENA, is now also suffering the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. Fighting has devastated its economy—leading to food insecurity verging on famine—and destroyed critical infrastructure. In the ongoing Middle Eastern crises, Yemeni Houthis still remain the last formidable group standing with Iranian strategic interests in the region; which may be kept alive for a host of reasons also serving the West.

–To be continued

Saleem Qamar Butt
The writer is a retired senior army officer with experience in international relations, military diplomacy and analysis of geo-political and strategic security issues.